EU renewable energy targets in 2020: Analysis of scenarios for transport

This study provides a robust scientific assessment of different renewable energy implementation scenarios and their associated impacts on the RED mandatory target for transport. The primary focus is on road transport demand although all other transport modes (aviation, rail, inland navigation and off-road) have been considered and are important contributors towards reaching the targets. Associated calculations of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reductions mandated in Article 7a of the Fuel Quality Directive (FQD)2 have been performed for the different RED implementation scenarios.

An analytical tool, called the Fleet and Fuels (F&F) model, has been developed and used to support this study. The model is based upon historical road fleet data (both passenger and freight) in 29 European countries (EU27 plus Norway and Switzerland). It projects the development of the vehicle fleet until 2020 based on reasonable assumptions including the impact of regulatory measures. The modelled fleet development leads to a road transport fuel demand and provides the basis upon which the introduction and availability of renewable and alternative motor fuels are analysed. The impacts of key modelled parameters on the RED 10% renewable energy target are also analysed in sensitivity cases.

During the development of the F&F model, the most recent energy and fuel demand data were used and experts in related projects were consulted via webinars and meetings to ensure that the model had been constructed using sound data and reasoning.

Reasonable assumptions regarding the projected development of the European vehicle fleet, including different vehicle technology options and the resulting demand for conventional and renewable fuels have been made. From this starting point, the F&F model was used to evaluate a reference scenario and eight additional market fuel demand scenarios. The results were then compiled to compare the potential contributions of renewable energy in transport from each scenario. These scenarios have also been studied by sensitivity analysis and provide both information and material for further investigation in several research areas at the crossroads of energy and transport. The reference scenario based on currently approved biofuel blends (B73, E5, E10) for broad market road fuels almost meets the RED 10% renewable energy target, when the renewable energy contribution from road transport is combined with additional contributions from non-road transport modes.