Bringing biofuels on the market: Options to increase EU biofuels volumes beyond the current blending limits

An inventory was made of potential means to market biofuels in the transport sector in 2020 . A range of biofuel types and blend percentages was identified , addressing the various transport modes. In 2020, about 95% of the passenger cars and vans will be compatible with E10, and all diesel vehicles are compatible with B7. In addition, up to 30% of HVO or BTL can be added. The current fuel standards also allow ethanol to be (partly) replaced by biomethanol, bio-MTBE and bio-ETBE. Increasing the maximum blend ratios to B10/B15 for diesel and E20 for petrol is technically feasible, and fuel standards for these blends are under development.

Ethanol can also be added to diesel fuel, but this is outside the diesel specification and would create substantial issues with fuel distribution. Higher blends or pure biofuels could also contribute significantly to the 2020 RED target , if the right conditions are met. Existing options are E85, biomethane and B30 for heavy - duty vehicles . Other options which are technically feasible, but cannot significantly contribute to the RED target are ED95 ( ethanol with ignition improver , for diesel engines), biomethanol (M15 or M85) and dimethyl - ether (DME). Scenarios for biofuels marketing in 2020.

Two biofuels demand scenarios were investigated, both on EU - level and for each individual Member State:

• the NREAP scenario, where biofuels demand is in line with expectations of Member States as outlined in their NREAPs ;
• the 50/50 scenario, where total biofuel demand is the same as in the NREAP scenario , but biodiesel and bioethanol have equal shares. In both scenarios, the current blending limits provide a very good basis for the marketing of significant volumes of biodiesel and bioethanol. Looking at the EU average, additional marketing of FAME will be necessary in the NREAP scenario, whereas in the 50/50 scenario, there is a very significant need for additional bioethanol marketing. Concrete biofuels marketing mixes were derived for both scenarios.

The key conclusions and recommendations of this study are the following.

• It is very unlikely that t he biofuels volumes that EU Member States expect for 2020 can be brought on the market within the current blending limits and policies. Other blending options need to be developed.
• To contribute towards the 2020 target, many of these options require the development of new (bio)fuel standards and associated vehicles, and quite ambitious market shares of these vehicles and fuels in 2020 . It is therefore essential for both governments and industry to decide sooner rather than later which routes need to be in place in 2020.
• Each Member State may have it's own strategy tailored to their market and policy objectives, but fragmentation throughout the EU is counterproductive . It is more efficient and effective to focus efforts of the stakeholders towards a limited number of blending options.
• Many of the options investigated will result in more fuel grades on offer at filling stations. Consumers need to understand which fuels are suitable for their vehicle and incentives are needed to buy the higher blends.
• A stable market outlook - until 2020 and beyond - is a crucial condition for stakeholders to invest in the developments needed for the various marketing options. Stable, effective and longer - term biofuel strategies and policies , both on EU and Member State level, are conditions for successful implementation .
• The EU can play a crucial facilitating role in these developments, for example by:
  
  - securing and accelerating the implementation of new fuel standards for higher blending limits and implementation of these fuels in the pollutant emissions legislation;
  
  - providing support to the development of Member States' biofuels marketing strategies and harmonisation of consumer information such as fuel labelling.