A harmonised Auto-Fuel biofuel roadmap for the EU to 2030

In 2020, biofuels alone could contribute over 8% of the 10% EU RED target, based on the current double counting rules.

• In actual terms this would represent around 6% of road transport fuel by energy.
• 20% of this could come from waste oils and fats and from the early advanced biofuels plants that are coming online.
• Biofuel supply is expected to grow by about 15% overall compared to 2011 (about an additional 2 Mtoe).
• Biofuels could contribute over 4% of the 6% FQD GHG emissions savings target.

In 2030, biofuels could contribute between 12 to 15% of transport energy, with over 10% going to road transport.

• Biofuel supply in road transport could go from 15 Mtoe in 2020 to 27 Mtoe in 2020. A significant amount of which could be EU sourced
• Diesel substitutes could displace over 10% of fossil diesel by energy. 2/3 of the increase between 2020 and 2030 could be derived from waste oils and fats and lignocellulosic material (c. 4 out of 6 Mtoe)
• Gasoline substitutes could displace over 12% of fossil gasoline by energy. 2/5 of the increase between 2020 and 2030 could be derived from lignocellulosic material (c. 2 out of 5 Mtoe)
• Advanced biofuels could represent up to 20% of diesel and gasoline substitutes. But contribution could be higher.
• Between now and 2030 over 1/2 of the growth in biofuels can come from lignocellulosic materials and waste oils and fats (and possibly new oil sources such as microbial oils)
• The rest, less than 6 Mtoe depending on deployment of advanced biofuels, would need to come from sustainable sources of sugars, starches and oils, with low ILUC risk