Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030

"Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030 central objective is to unravel the landscape of fuels used by commercial shipping over the next 16 years. The problem has many dimensions: a fuel needs to be available, cost-effective, compatible with existing and future technology and compliant with current and future environmental requirements. In a way, one cannot evaluate the future of marine fuels without evaluating the future of the marine industry. And the future of the marine industry itself is irrevocably linked with the global economic, social and political landscape to 2030.

Rather than looking for a single outcome, we use scenario planning methodologies. This is why we are making the connection with Global Marine Trends 2030, through its 3 different scenarios: Status Quo, Global Commons and Competing Nations. These scenarios represent alternative futures for the world and shipping in 2030, from business as usual to more globalisation or more localisation. Our assumptions are fed into probably the most sophisticated scenario planning model that exists for global shipping, GloTraM, developed as part of the Low Carbon Shipping Consortium. The model analyses how the global fleet evolves in response to external drivers such as fuel prices, transport demand and technology availability, cost and technical compatibility. Tonnage replacement and design/operational speeds are adjusted to ensure a balance between transport demand and supply. The decision-making algorithms in the model are based in the principles of regulatory compliance and ship-owner profit-maximisation, very much aligned to the dimensions of the future fuel challenge. GMFT 2030 boundaries are wide but not completely inclusive: we examine the containership, bulk carrier/general cargo and tanker (crude and chemical/products) sectors, representing approximately 70% of the shipping industry’s fuel demand in 2007.

We include fuels ranging from liquid fuels used today (HFO, MDO/MGO) to their bio-alternatives (bio-diesel, straight vegetable oil) and from LNG and biogas to methanol and hydrogen (derived both from methane or wood biomass). Engine technology includes 2 or 4 stroke diesels, diesel-electric, gas engines and fuel cell technology. A wide range of energy efficiency technologies and abatement solutions (including sulphur scrubbers and Selective Catalytic Reduction for NOx emissions abatement) compatible with the examined ship types are included in the modelling. The uptake of these technologies influences the uptake of different fuels. Regulation is aligned with each of the 3 overarching scenarios to reflect business-as-usual, globalisation or localisation trends. They include current and future emission control areas (ECAs), energy efficiency requirements (EEDI) and carbon policies (carbon tax). Oil, gas and hydrogen fuel prices are also linked to the Status Quo, Global Commons and Competing Nations scenarios."