Potential and benefits of carbon abatement by ethanol use in Hungary

While from 2000 to 2010 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector stagnated in EU 27, they increased by about 25% in Hungary, and the transport sector accounted for 18 % of total GHG emissions measured in Hungary in 2011. Based on the target set in the 2009/28/EC directive (RED) on the promotion of using energy from renewable sources, the share of energy from renewable sources in the transport sector has to reach 10% in Hungary by 2020. As it is shown in this study this is not possible without the use of ethanol. Although several studies were prepared on the carbon abatement cost of ethanol use, the results are very sensitive to country specific factors, thus this study focused on carbon emissions from transport and the cost of using ethanol for carbon abatement in Hungary.

Our main conclusion is that despite the European-wide turbulent discussion on the CO2 mitigation potential of bioethanol use in transport, bioethanol has a significant positive GHG emission reduction effect, and even with a conservative estimation the CO2 mitigation cost of bioethanol based on Hungarian corn is cheaper than the other alternatives for the mitigation of GHG emissions in the transport sector. Therefore it is a beneficial policy goal in Hungary to set a higher mandatory target for ethanol blending in gasoline, which is equivalent to a general use of E10. It is worth noting that our conclusion on ethanol use - and boosting ethanol use - is in line with relevant current Hungarian policies, strategies and plans, such as the New Széchenyi Plan or the National Energy Strategy.

How important is ethanol in the reduction of CO2 emission of transport sector of Hungary? Our estimations predicted high CO2 emissions for 2015 in all transport scenarios: 3155 thousand tons without and 2963 thousand tons with the introduction of the E10 blend . These are both scenarios that include a certain amount of ethanol blending; CO2 emissions are estimated to be 11.4 % less in 2015 in the E10 scenario as opposed to a reference E0 scenario . The reduction resulting from using E5 is half as large (189 thousand tons, 5.6%). E10 could abate 382 thousand tons of CO2 emissions per annum, which is equivalent of 3 % of total transport GHG emissions in 2011. This reduction has a moderate cost even with a conservative estimation. Our calculation shows that the CO 2 mitigation cost for society of bioethanol based on Hungarian corn and included engine energy efficiency effect is less than zero ( - 2 €/t CO 2 eq instead of 84 €/CO 2 eq without energy efficiency effect) , thus ethanol usage can be a reasonable and viable choice for further CO2 reduction in the transport sector.