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Near-Term Potential of Biofuels, Electrofuels, and Battery Electric Vehicles in Decarbonizing Road Transport

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We develop a framework for comparing carbon-neutral synthetic fuels (CNSFs)


with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as alternatives to reducing CO2 emissions


from light-duty vehicles. CNSFs can be divided into fuels produced from


biomass via gasification and electrofuels produced from CO2 and water using


electricity. We develop CNSF cost estimates for first-of-a-kind plants operating


at commercial scale. Although already competitive over short distances, we find


that longer-range BEVs are likely to remain more expensive than CNSFs even if


low ($125/kWh) battery costs are achieved, and all three options would


require carbon prices in excess of $130/tCO2 or oil prices in excess of


$100/bbl to become commercially viable relative to petroleum. The viability


of electrofuels ultimately depends on access to low-cost, ultra-low-carbon power


systems or sources of zero-carbon electricity with high annual availability.


Priorities should include deploying a portfolio of CNSF technologies to help


 


appraise decarbonization pathways, economies of scale, and learning by doing.

Author:

Ilkka Hannula, David M. Reiner


 

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